Lyin’ on a hillside
All alone in the twilight
Watchin’ the stars pop out
Feelin kinda small right now
Contemplatin’ all that space
All the planets in their place
Wonderin’ where I fit in
As the world slowly spins around me
Around me, the universe surrounds me
I thirst and I hunger
I search and I wonder
Is there anybody out there
Somebody out there
That one body out there
I believe there’s gotta be
A love for me somewhere
Who’s prayin’ the same prayer
Is there anybody out there
Lookin’ for me
4 billion people
A haystack and a needle
If only I could catch a ride
On the passin’ side of life
With a different point of view
Maybe then I’d find you
But I’m stuck here on the ground
Askin’ the dark out loud
Is he close?
Is he near me?
Can anybody hear me?
Oh, I believe
There’s gotta be
A love for me somewhere
Who’s prayin the same prayer
Is there anybody out there
Lookin’ for me
Is anybody out there?
Later today Apple will hold a special event at the California Theater. Its widely expected that this will be the reveal of a new, 7.85” iPad. below are my predictions for today’s events.
iPad mini - The iPad mini will be revealed today. It will have a Lightning connector, FaceTime HD front camera and a rear-facing 5MP camera (same one from the touch). It will run Apple’s A5 chip (on a 32nm process) and 1GB RAM.
Which leads us to pricing. The best leak I’ve seen thus far seems to indicate 24 SKU’s. While most sites are expecting that to be 4 storage options (8,16,32,64), I don’t think that is the case. At this time only one iOS device is sold with 8GB of storage, and that’s the 2 year old iPhone 4. The iPod touch, and the iPad both start at 16GB, and I think the mini will contonue that trend. However, I don’t see the iPad 3 getting any updates yet, and therefore Apple won’t use the mini to add 128GB of storage either (I don’t think 128 will ever be an option to be honest). That leaves three sizes (16, 32 & 64) spread across 24 SKU’s (for comparison, there are 18 iPad 3 SKU’s). The fact there are only 18 iPad 3 SKU’s was throwing me off at first, but then it dawned on me: there are actually 24 iPad SKU’s. 18 are for retina iPads, and 4 are for non-retina iPads. Therefore, here is my price and model breakdown prediction:
16/32/64 Black/White WiFi w/ A5- $199/$249/$299
16/32/64 Black/White 4G w/ A5- $299/$349/$399
16/32/64 Black/White WiFi w/ Retina & A5X- $399/$449/$499
16/32/64 Black/White 4G w/ Retina & A5X- $499/$549/$599
Apple enjoys unparalleled advantages in the supply chain. Their economies of scale are simply unequaled in the mobile space, and I expect this is when they will use that power to their advantage. Yes, it will reduce their profit margin, but it won’t eliminate it. But an aggressive pricing move could very well eliminate some competitors.
The iPad mini represents a new line for Apple, not just an extension of the iPad. And much like the iPad rumors that flew around before its introduction, the price expected was far higher than what Apple released. I think we’ll see a repeat of that today. Most expectations are for the iPad to start at the $300-$400 range, but i expect it will actually be revealed for far less.
13” MacBook Pro w/ Retina Display - This one has been talked about a lot as well, and I agree it’s coming. But I don’t think this will be just a new product added to the Pro line up. With the 15” rMBP, it made sense to add it in making essentially two 15” lines. But there already are two 13” lines, and adding a rMBP that is equivalent to the 15” rMBP ends up with a product extremely similar to the existing MBA. Therefore, I suspect the current 13” MBP will be dropped. The new 13” rMBP will be the same thickness as the 15” rMBP, with a much bigger battery, 8GB RAM with a 16GB option, and 256/512/768 SSD options. It will gain the integrated/discrete graphics switching and dual thunderbolt ports. Starting price will be $1599.
iTunes 11 - This one is probably the most sure bet, since Apple already said they would release it in October. If you want to know about it, watch the iPhone 5 keynote, they demo it pretty well there.
iWork ‘12 - This one is more of a hope than an expectation, but the iWork suite really, really needs an update. Badly.
iBookstore/iBooks Author/iBooks - We will see updates to the entire iBook ecosystem and an expansion into some new markets.
I wanted to comment on my predictions and how I fared. Overall, I got it about 70% right, maybe a little more. The “new iPad” (as neither iPad 3 or HD were used) did replace the current iPad 2 at the same price points. It didn’t have an A6, but instead an A5X, featuring the same CPU, but Quad-Core Graphics. The camera was improved as I expected, and we ended up getting LTE, which I thought was possible but not too certain. The big shock is the battery, its just massive: in fact its 70% larger than the iPad 2’s battery.
iPhoto for iOS did come out, even though I thought it’d be called Aperture. It does perform the power features I was hoping for though (and after having used it, its a fantastic app).
I also correctly predicted the iPad 2 would stick around, and at 16GB in size, although Apple kept the price $100 higher than I would have liked to have seen. I still think they missed the boat on this, though with all the talk about a 7.85” iPad on the horizon, they may have purposely left a $299 gap for now (the iPod touch starts at $199, iPad 2 at $399, iPad “HD” at $499).
Spec wise, I was right on the AppleTV, but only half right on the gaming side. However, my original prediction two years ago was that it’d be by holiday season, so there is still time for me to be proven right on that. The new AppleTV does support apps though, and mention of 3rd party apps has been made, so I feel I got this one right overall.
iOS 5.1 was released that day, but that was an easy one. There was no revision to other hardware though, which I admit surprised me. I suspect that we will see a full press conference for the next revision then, as I expect big things from the laptop line and a fairly significant revamp.
All in all, I didn’t do too badly, and I’m quite happy with what did get announced. As Tim Cook stated though, the year is young and they are just getting started. Here’s to 2012. :)
March 7th is the big day: Apple’s press reveal of the new iPad, likely to be called the iPad 3 or the iPad HD. I’ve had a few people ask me what I think will be happen tomorrow, so here is my prediction for the big event.
iPad HD - A6 processor, quad-core with large graphics improvement. Retina Display. Slightly thicker, with improved cameras. I’m a bit undecided on LTE, I fully expect the iPhone to get it later this year, so it could make some sense for the iPad to get it, but I still don’t think the performance/power/packaging equation is there yet. I’m gonna say no on this for now, but I won’t be surprised if it should have it.
All the previous iPad releases had also introduced new software. As a few others have speculated, this could bring about a true iPhoto or Aperture app for iOS. Since iWork, Garageband and iMovie have come on board so far, I’m filing this one in the very likely category. I personally think we will see both, Aperture for iOS being a purchased app, and an improved Photos app that incorporates better management to be more like iPhoto.
This next thought isn’t mine, so I’m just gonna link you to his excellently written article, but the idea of true haptic feedback is extremely tasty. True, this is probably more of something I want to see versus something we are likely to see, but as he concludes, this would also exemplify Apple perfectly. → What if the secret feature of the iPad 3 is a new touch-feedback technology?
You’ll note I said that I think it will be called the iPad HD. This is because I think the iPad HD will be the new “iPad 3” at the same price points as the current models, but that we will see Apple keep the iPad 2 in a new 8GB model (though the standard 16GB is possible too). This model will have a drastically lower price, likely $249-$299. I have seen a few pundits poo-poo on this idea, but most came at it as if it was going to be aimed at corporations. I think they will do it, but it will be aimed at the mass market consumers.
Apple is in a unique position with the iPad that they have never experienced before: they are the king of that market. On top of the market share and mind share, they also have real and vast manufacturing advantages. The Kindle Fire, at $249, is the iPad’s closest competitor. If Apple was to introduce the 8GB iPad 2 for $249, they would likely still make profit on it, and more important, severely undercut sales of other tablets. Steve Jobs was quite specific in his wording, “I will destroy Android”, and we have seen Apple being quite aggressive in the patent wars, but those take years to drag out. A sub-$300 iPad though would be a direct shot at Android, while being inscrutably legal, and even more important, further entrenching their marketshare advantage in the tablet market. We have also already seen this exact model twice now, the iPhone 4 intro saw the 3GS remain available, and then the iPhone 4S launch created an 8GB iPhone 4 model that was cheaper.
AppleTV - I don’t think iPad will be the only star of the show though. I agree with the evidence that we will see an AppleTV update, and suspect it will run an A5 processor, display full 1080p, and feature a completely revamped interface. That is a fairly mellow prediction that in inline with most the pundits; but two years ago I predicted a specific feature of the AppleTV that I feel will reveal itself this year: This new AppleTV will play iOS games, using any iOS device as a controller, and possible including a basic physical controller as well.
TV by Apple - I’m rather surprised I haven’t heard a single post about this prediction, but from the Jobs biography we know that Apple was looking at the TV market heavily, and we know the Apple TV is out of stock almost universally. While I fully expect to see the AppleTV described above, its possible we could see the 1st Gen TV by Apple, with iOS integrated. Personally, I’m gonna give this about a 4% change of happening, but it is something to look out for.
iOS 5.1 will also be released, and available for download immediately. Lastly, while not a part of the reveal itself, expect to see a spec bump in the Mac Mini and/or MacBook Pro line quietly posted after the show.
Below is a fascinating piece, please read it and show your support for Planned Parenthood.
Pro-“life” activists are like cancer: they’re ubiquitous, often go undetected until their damage is irreversible, and heartbreakingly detrimental to women’s health.
Which is why it’s so mind-blowing that one of the country’s most powerful and…
25 years ago this month I had my first real kiss. Jennifer Hendricks and I both went to Silver Gate Elementary in Point Loma, CA. I used to walk her to her class, holding hands, almost every morning. One morning she kissed me, and I can still remember how awkward, unsure, fantastic, confused, and happy I was. A few days, maybe a week later, and we would kiss most times we said goodbye. It was only a week or two later that we used our tongues, though I doubt either of us really knew what we were doing still.
The fact it was 25 years ago is fun, but the reason it is being written about now is that Natalee is 5 and in Kindergarten. As my girls grow up and I see more of myself in them, it makes me wonder just how much of me is in them. This was somewhat answered in the following conversation Natalee and Cassidi had today while driving from the YMCA to dinner:
Natalee: My head hurts.
Cassidi: Did you hit it?
Natalee: No, my friend did.
Cassidi: Who is your friend?
Natalee: Chris. I like laying on him.
Natalee: No! Chris J. He is in my class with Miss Guzman
At this point I repeat to Natalee the comment about liking to lay on him. She replies, “He’s nice, and he let’s me lay on him during reading.” The telltale giggle follows.
Cassidi: I like laying on Aaron Jordan.
Natalee & Cassidi both giggle
Cassidi: Songs please daddy! (This is how they tell me to turn on the radio)
Somehow I think they are gonna be breaking a lot of hearts as they get older.
There is a lot of great analysis floating around already about Adobe’s decision to stop developing its Flash plugin for mobile devices. I wanted to wrap some of it together with my own thoughts:
I haven’t made much noise either way about the coming fate of the USPS, but I am NOT a supporter of them. Personally, I feel the USPS needs to be greatly reduced and/or dismantled. It’s an antiquated, outdated and wasteful delivery model.
Packages are handled better and cheaper by UPS/FedEx/DHL and have been for a while. Its 2011 and USPS still can’t tell you where your package is up to the minute. Last week UPS announced that they will give you a two hour window of delivery. Paychecks nowdays are usually just paystubs (which can be easily handled digitally). Salary is transferred electronically via direct deposit or deposited to a debit card. More and more banks are allowing digital submission of paper checks. Bills are routinely received via email/internet and can be paid online or via phone.
In fact, the only thing I’ve gotten in the mail in the last month that wasn’t junk mail was a legal notice. This one was about a class action lawsuit I can be part of, and the deadline is two months out. A week delivery window wouldn’t have mattered. Even for the purposes of serving papers and handling legal business, the requirement for mail is decreasingly rapidly. Serving in person is much better and even required in certain cases, and filing cases and submitting documents is increasingly done online as well.
I fail to see why we need to get mail any more than once a week anymore. My proposal would be to move home delivery to once a week, business delivery to M-W-F. I can’t imagine any usage scenario where this kind of reduction would be hugely detrimental. Though if we do go to once a week home delivery, I’d greatly prefer it was delivered the day before the trash goes out. I don’t want to have to carry my “mail” too far.